Initially, I wrote this for my newsletter Zero Retries 0063 (will publish Friday 2022-09-09 at 15:30 Pacific), but to avoid "Starlink isn't Amateur Radio fatigue" in the Zero Retries readership, I decided to move the article here and reference it in Zero Retries 0063 as optional reading. I believe that Starlink is poised to become a significant influence on Amateur Radio’s traditional role of providing emergency communications, thus this discussion is appropriate for an Amateur Radio audience.
I believe that by the end of 2023, every Emergency Operations Center (EOC) will have Starlink installed and have it set up as failover Internet. This includes not just local, regional, state, and national EOCs, but private defacto EOCs such as electrical suppliers, natural gas suppliers, water distribution, grocery retailers, trucking companies, healthcare… even garbage removal. Not to mention centers of information such as National Weather Service (NWS) offices, United States Geological Survey (USGS), airports, etc. In short, Starlink is poised to become the emergency Internet. In short, if it matters in an emergency, it will have Starlink connectivity. And the converse is true: in an emergency, if it doesn’t have Starlink… that facility / organization won’t matter (in managing the emergency).
That includes Mobile Command Centers (MCCs). I predict that by end of 2023, every MCC will have a “Starlink for RVs” unit installed. (Never mind that Starlink currently doesn’t offer a “mobile” unit - someone, or Starlink, will figure out how to make one optimized for mobile use because the market for that use case is enormous.) One attraction for doing so is that Starlink service can be suspended, and reactivated, via a web page, thus during the months that a mobile command center is unused, it’s not burning up the $135/month (retail) usage fee.
Tom Evslin makes this case in his article Every First Responder HQ in Vermont Needs Two Portable Starlink Dishes:
When tropical storm Irene lashed Vermont eleven years ago, many towns became islands. The roads and bridges to them were gone. Some towns were also cutoff from all communications. The poles that brought them electricity, phone, and some Internet service (if they had any) were gone. Cellular towers were blown down, lost their own wired connections to the communications backbone, and/or ran out of diesel fuel for their backup generators. repair crews did a fabulous job; but they couldn’t be everywhere at once – and some places were simply inaccessible to the trucks for weeks.
Some cut off towns sent couriers out on foot to get emergency medicine or arrange helicopter evacuations of sick and injured people. Sometimes people found there was one hill they could drive to and get spotty cellular coverage as long as they had enough gas to get there and run the car to keep the cellphones charged.
No matter what weather or catastrophe hits us in the future, there is no excuse for ever losing communications again. The difference is the ready availability of satellite communication. Satellites circling 200 miles above us and powered by solar power obviously aren’t affected by whatever terrestrial problem afflicts us. As long as first responders have some source of 110-volt power and a view of the northern sky, they can keep on communicating during and after a storm or other catastrophe.
To be clear, wireline (especially fiber), fixed wireless, and cellular will all continue to be primary methods of broadband Internet access… when they are available. But all three of those methods of broadband Internet access (eventually) fail when there is loss of grid power and especially physical damage to infrastructure. Examples: hurricanes, loss of the Texas power grid last winter, wildfires, etc.
We haven’t seen this movement quite yet because:
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Budget cycles for most organizations are annual; Starlink wasn’t a significant factor in time for 2022 budgets submitted in 2021.
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Starlink has only matured as reasonably usable in 2022 with two key capabilities - Starlink Business (higher bandwidth and reliability) and Starlink for RVs (nomadic capability).
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In 2021, Starlink’s long term reliability and usability remained to be proven.
Why won’t anything that doesn’t have Starlink connectivity matter? Because once there’s a critical mass of Starlink users in emergency situations, the Broadband Internet capabilities of Starlink will quickly become the expected norm. Emergency managers will expect communications to just keep working - VOIP, email, websites for information dispersal (weather, wind), and especially video. Any communications system that can’t “keep up” with the reliability and usability (and relatively low cost) of Starlink just won’t be considered useful.
Will Starlink become saturated like what occurred with the early Iridium system? The “extreme test case” of the war in Ukraine, where there’s probably the most intense use of Starlink in the world, is evidence that despite intensive regional use, Starlink will remain usable. Starlink is sophisticated enough that it could, if needed, prioritize users. In fact, it’s already doing so with the offering of Starlink Business:
With a higher gain antenna, additional throughput allocation, and better extreme weather performance, Starlink Business helps ensure bandwidth for critical operations 24/7.
One of the primary attractions of Starlink, versus Amateur Radio, is that you don’t need (Amateur Radio) specialists and their licenses to use Amateur Radio spectrum. Starlink providing broadband Internet is “just another Information Technology (IT) function, and every organization already has IT specialists on staff or quickly on call. Unlike previous satellite communications systems, Starlink’s self-aiming capability doesn’t cost a premium of thousands of dollars, so “specialist installation” isn’t needed.
Starlink has not sought this role, but it’s rapidly proven that it’s usable in such extreme situations because of its highly visible use in the war in Ukraine. A recent article in the Kyiv Independent - How Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet keeps Ukraine online provides a testament to Starlink’s usability and reliability:
Among the Ukrainian military, Elon Musk, the richest tech entrepreneur in the U.S., is often half-jokingly referred to as “Saint Elon.”
The reason is Starlink, Musk’s satellite communication system that keeps many Ukrainians, most importantly the military, online despite power outages and Russia’s attacks on the country's internet infrastructure.
Starlink allows access to the internet even during power outages or in the absence of other internet infrastructure. It is also more secure than other types of communication: Experts say that it’s nearly impossible for Russian troops to intercept.
Lastly, I suspect that Starlink for RVs, or just the existence of Starlink in general, combined with the corporate sponsorships and the abundance of IT professionals with time on their hands, will “supercharge” Information Technology Disaster Resource Center (ITDRC) in the next few years. ITDRC’s tagline is “America's premier team of volunteer technology professionals - Connecting Communities in Crisis” Think of ITDRC as ARES, but showing up with Starlink, lots of Ethernet cable, and Wi-Fi units instead of Amateur radios.
I asked a friend with experience in Amateur Radio and operating Emergency Operations Centers and Mobile Command Centers for feedback on this article and their primary feedback was that Starlink does work as I describe, especially in the field… but for EOCs and MCCs, the monthly billing is a major pain point, requiring approval paperwork to be submitted every month. It would make their life much simpler if Starlink offered an annual billing plan.
Thanks for reading!
Steve Stroh N8GNJ
Bellingham, Washington, USA
Portions Copyright © 2022 by Steven K. Stroh
New web page - A Brief Survey of Technological Innovation in Amateur Radio
This is a paper I wrote for the ARRL and TAPR Digital Communications Conference 2022.
A Brief Survey of Technological Innovation in Amateur Radio
By Steve Stroh N8GNJ1
ARRL and TAPR 2022 Digital Communications Conference Charlotte, North Carolina, USA 2022-09-16 thru 18
Abstract
In recent decades, the perception of Amateur Radio within the general public has shifted from Amateur Radio being useful, innovative, and an interesting technical activity, to Amateur Radio being perceived as an anachronism and largely irrelevant (except in the direst of communications emergencies). Summarized: “Ham Radio – that’s still around?”
Amateur Radio’s service to the public for emergency communications is being supplanted by improved commercial and government communications capabilities such as improved Iridium2 satellite phones, the FirstNET3 public safety cellular system, and most recently, the nomadic capability of the Starlink4 broadband satellite system.
Amateur Radio has continuously developed unique technological innovations in radio technology, and that has not only continued in the modern era but has accelerated. However, that ongoing, unique contribution to technological society is, increasingly, unrecognized. That is unfortunate. If regulators, lawmakers, industry, the general public... and the Amateur Radio community itself understood the unique contributions to technological innovations in radio technology that Amateur Radio continues to develop, perhaps such recognition might improve Amateur Radio’s perception that it remains a valuable part of society, worthy of continued access to portions of the electromagnetic spectrum.
Keywords
Amateur, Radio, Operator, Ham, Wireless, Technology, Innovation, Spectrum, Digital, VHF, UHF, SHF, Microwave, Communications, ARDC, Techies, Makers, Hackers, Zero Retries Newsletter, Experimentation, Research and Development, FlexRadio, Steve Stroh N8GNJ
Background
For decades, I have been an admirer of technological innovation in Amateur Radio. Not just new technologies like Packet Radio emerging in the 1980s, but new techniques for old problems such as digital techniques enabling reliable communications via unreliable mediums such as the High Frequency (HF)5 (aka Shortwave) portions of the electromagnetic spectrum.
Amateur Radio’s unique culture, the varying characteristics of various portions of spectrum allocated to (or shared with) Amateur Radio operations, and the many highly capable and skilled Amateur Radio Operators, have resulted in a fertile, and welcoming “experimental zone” for technological innovation in radio technologies. Until recent decades, that culture of technological innovation was widely recognized, and encouraged. In the last few decades, the recognition of
1 Email – [email protected]
2 https://www.iridium.com/network/
3 https://firstnet.gov/network
4 https://www.starlink.com/rv
5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_frequency
A Brief Survey of Technological Innovation in Amateur Radio
Amateur Radio’s utility and contributions to technological innovation have been deprecated to near irrelevence... at least in popular perception... by ubiquitous Internet access, mobile phones, caricatures of Amateur Radio as “Grandpa sitting in the basement tapping on a Morse Code key”, and most notably, the removal of old barriers to individuals communicating across international borders.
A primary reason that this is a concern for society is that it has become irrevocably dependent on radio technology as the primary method of communications for mobile devices, most notably cellular technology, wireless local area networks (Wi-Fi), and most recently, direct-to-user satellite communications. For many people, their mobile phone is their only method of communications and media consumption. Much of that technology has been developed and manufactured in China. Dependence on China for such a critical infrastructure function is proving to be fraught with peril. To counter that peril, the US and other Western nations must quickly develop additional expertise, and personnel, “in nation” to better develop and support this now-critical wireless infrastructure. Amateur Radio can be a “training ground” for developing familiarity and expertise with radio technology, leading to careers in developing and supporting radio technology... but only if Amateur Radio is recognized as a useful and interesting.
The rise of technology specialists, especially those trained in Information Technology (IT), the “Maker culture”6, and the “Hacking Culture”7 have breathed new life into Amateur Radio. “Techies” have discovered Amateur Radio as an enabling technology for supporting experimentation with Information Technologies (such as building hobbyist / not-for-profit wide- area microwave networks). Makers have discovered that there are incredibly interesting things that they can add to their personal knowledge base and practical projects based on capabilities Amateur Radio has long taken for granted, such as long-range communications via VHF / UHF repeaters. Hackers have discovered Amateur Radio as a fertile “playground” for their experiments and expansion of knowledge about radio technology, such as Software Defined Receivers... and Transmitters (with an Amateur Radio license).
I started the Zero Retries Newsletter8 in July, 2021 out of frustration that the totality of technological innovation in Amateur Radio wasn’t being recognized by the Amateur Radio community, its regulators, and especially the public at large. Specifically, I was worried about the growing public perception that Amateur Radio is irrelevant, or worse, an anachronism. Such a perception, if it is to continue for much longer, may prove catastrophic to Amateur Radio, most notably in the loss of Amateur Radio access to various portions of spectrum. To date I’ve published more than fifty weekly issues of Zero Retries, and each issue highlights some aspect of technological innovation in Amateur Radio.
Literally, Amateur Radio is a license to experiment with radio technology and a welcoming “innovation zone” to develop new and exciting technological innovations in radio technology. I hope to make that point with the vignettes in this paper.
6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maker_culture
7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hacker_culture
8 https://zeroretries.substack.com (will eventually migrate to https://zeroretries.org)
...
Read the rest of the paper at:
https://www.superpacket.org/n8gnj_dcc_2022_final_for_web.pdf
Posted by Steve Stroh on September 16, 2022 at 06:30 AM in Amateur Radio Future, ARDC, AREDN, ARRL and TAPR DCC, Conferences, D-Star, General Commentary, Growing Amateur Radio, Internet, Microwave, New Packet Radio, Packet Radio, Presentations / Talks, RadioMirror, Radios, Regulatory, Satellite, Software Defined Transceiver, SuperPacket Web Pages, TCP/IP, WSJT Modes | Permalink