Initially, I wrote this for my newsletter Zero Retries 0063 (will publish Friday 2022-09-09 at 15:30 Pacific), but to avoid "Starlink isn't Amateur Radio fatigue" in the Zero Retries readership, I decided to move the article here and reference it in Zero Retries 0063 as optional reading. I believe that Starlink is poised to become a significant influence on Amateur Radio’s traditional role of providing emergency communications, thus this discussion is appropriate for an Amateur Radio audience.
I believe that by the end of 2023, every Emergency Operations Center (EOC) will have Starlink installed and have it set up as failover Internet. This includes not just local, regional, state, and national EOCs, but private defacto EOCs such as electrical suppliers, natural gas suppliers, water distribution, grocery retailers, trucking companies, healthcare… even garbage removal. Not to mention centers of information such as National Weather Service (NWS) offices, United States Geological Survey (USGS), airports, etc. In short, Starlink is poised to become the emergency Internet. In short, if it matters in an emergency, it will have Starlink connectivity. And the converse is true: in an emergency, if it doesn’t have Starlink… that facility / organization won’t matter (in managing the emergency).
That includes Mobile Command Centers (MCCs). I predict that by end of 2023, every MCC will have a “Starlink for RVs” unit installed. (Never mind that Starlink currently doesn’t offer a “mobile” unit - someone, or Starlink, will figure out how to make one optimized for mobile use because the market for that use case is enormous.) One attraction for doing so is that Starlink service can be suspended, and reactivated, via a web page, thus during the months that a mobile command center is unused, it’s not burning up the $135/month (retail) usage fee.
Tom Evslin makes this case in his article Every First Responder HQ in Vermont Needs Two Portable Starlink Dishes:
When tropical storm Irene lashed Vermont eleven years ago, many towns became islands. The roads and bridges to them were gone. Some towns were also cutoff from all communications. The poles that brought them electricity, phone, and some Internet service (if they had any) were gone. Cellular towers were blown down, lost their own wired connections to the communications backbone, and/or ran out of diesel fuel for their backup generators. repair crews did a fabulous job; but they couldn’t be everywhere at once – and some places were simply inaccessible to the trucks for weeks.
Some cut off towns sent couriers out on foot to get emergency medicine or arrange helicopter evacuations of sick and injured people. Sometimes people found there was one hill they could drive to and get spotty cellular coverage as long as they had enough gas to get there and run the car to keep the cellphones charged.
No matter what weather or catastrophe hits us in the future, there is no excuse for ever losing communications again. The difference is the ready availability of satellite communication. Satellites circling 200 miles above us and powered by solar power obviously aren’t affected by whatever terrestrial problem afflicts us. As long as first responders have some source of 110-volt power and a view of the northern sky, they can keep on communicating during and after a storm or other catastrophe.
To be clear, wireline (especially fiber), fixed wireless, and cellular will all continue to be primary methods of broadband Internet access… when they are available. But all three of those methods of broadband Internet access (eventually) fail when there is loss of grid power and especially physical damage to infrastructure. Examples: hurricanes, loss of the Texas power grid last winter, wildfires, etc.
We haven’t seen this movement quite yet because:
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Budget cycles for most organizations are annual; Starlink wasn’t a significant factor in time for 2022 budgets submitted in 2021.
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Starlink has only matured as reasonably usable in 2022 with two key capabilities - Starlink Business (higher bandwidth and reliability) and Starlink for RVs (nomadic capability).
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In 2021, Starlink’s long term reliability and usability remained to be proven.
Why won’t anything that doesn’t have Starlink connectivity matter? Because once there’s a critical mass of Starlink users in emergency situations, the Broadband Internet capabilities of Starlink will quickly become the expected norm. Emergency managers will expect communications to just keep working - VOIP, email, websites for information dispersal (weather, wind), and especially video. Any communications system that can’t “keep up” with the reliability and usability (and relatively low cost) of Starlink just won’t be considered useful.
Will Starlink become saturated like what occurred with the early Iridium system? The “extreme test case” of the war in Ukraine, where there’s probably the most intense use of Starlink in the world, is evidence that despite intensive regional use, Starlink will remain usable. Starlink is sophisticated enough that it could, if needed, prioritize users. In fact, it’s already doing so with the offering of Starlink Business:
With a higher gain antenna, additional throughput allocation, and better extreme weather performance, Starlink Business helps ensure bandwidth for critical operations 24/7.
One of the primary attractions of Starlink, versus Amateur Radio, is that you don’t need (Amateur Radio) specialists and their licenses to use Amateur Radio spectrum. Starlink providing broadband Internet is “just another Information Technology (IT) function, and every organization already has IT specialists on staff or quickly on call. Unlike previous satellite communications systems, Starlink’s self-aiming capability doesn’t cost a premium of thousands of dollars, so “specialist installation” isn’t needed.
Starlink has not sought this role, but it’s rapidly proven that it’s usable in such extreme situations because of its highly visible use in the war in Ukraine. A recent article in the Kyiv Independent - How Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet keeps Ukraine online provides a testament to Starlink’s usability and reliability:
Among the Ukrainian military, Elon Musk, the richest tech entrepreneur in the U.S., is often half-jokingly referred to as “Saint Elon.”
The reason is Starlink, Musk’s satellite communication system that keeps many Ukrainians, most importantly the military, online despite power outages and Russia’s attacks on the country's internet infrastructure.
Starlink allows access to the internet even during power outages or in the absence of other internet infrastructure. It is also more secure than other types of communication: Experts say that it’s nearly impossible for Russian troops to intercept.
Lastly, I suspect that Starlink for RVs, or just the existence of Starlink in general, combined with the corporate sponsorships and the abundance of IT professionals with time on their hands, will “supercharge” Information Technology Disaster Resource Center (ITDRC) in the next few years. ITDRC’s tagline is “America's premier team of volunteer technology professionals - Connecting Communities in Crisis” Think of ITDRC as ARES, but showing up with Starlink, lots of Ethernet cable, and Wi-Fi units instead of Amateur radios.
I asked a friend with experience in Amateur Radio and operating Emergency Operations Centers and Mobile Command Centers for feedback on this article and their primary feedback was that Starlink does work as I describe, especially in the field… but for EOCs and MCCs, the monthly billing is a major pain point, requiring approval paperwork to be submitted every month. It would make their life much simpler if Starlink offered an annual billing plan.
Thanks for reading!
Steve Stroh N8GNJ
Bellingham, Washington, USA
Portions Copyright © 2022 by Steven K. Stroh
Communications Academy 2021
A bit of background; through 2019, Communications Academy was a weekend event held at a community college in the Seattle area. It was a unique event that brought together first responders and emergency managers and often US government (such as Federal Emergency Management Agency - FEMA, National Weather Service - NWS, etc.) personnel and Amateur Radio operators who are, or who were, involved in Amateur Radio emergency communications. It was a good event, with ample value created just in the cross-fertilization and the education opportunities. One of the nicer bonuses of attending Comm Academy was the Saturday "show and tell" tours of various agencies' emergency communications vehicles. (The FEMA vehicles were particularly impressive.)
Communications Academy 2020 was going to be another in-person event until the outbreak of COVID-19 (which began in the US in nearby Kirkland, Washington) made that impossible. At that late date, it was impossible to put together a virtual version of Comm Academy, so it was simply canceled. Everyone understood.
Apparently, the Comm Academy principals (not listed on the website, though they were disclosed in the videos) decided not just to put on a virtual analog of in-person Comm Academy, but make Comm Academy into a virtual-first event with high quality production values and ample support for the virtual aspects, such as emcees, multiple people scanning the various live feedback channels for questions. Comm Academy's principals succeeded - Comm Academy 2021 was a stellar event, watched by thousands worldwide, instead of the few hundreds that attended the in-person version from around the Pacific Northwest and a few from outside the region.
I can't say enough good things about the production quality (and overall quality) of Comm Academy 2021 - see for yourself on YouTube.
I'll disclose that I only "attended" (watched) a few of the presentations live, mostly because weekends are precious time at home given a hectic travel schedule at the moment, and knowing that all the presentations would be archived for later viewing. I'll be watching all the presentations (except one - see below) later this week.
The two presentations I made time for were both people I knew, and presentations I've already heard in other conferences. I made time to watch these two presentations because I knew that the presenters would provide good information and they represent a realistic perspective of Amateur Radio emergency communications in 2021. I was curious how they would tailor their presentations for the Comm Academy 2021 audience, and they didn't dissapoint.
The first presentation I watched was Winlink, Digital Voice and Tech Based Comms - When Infrastructure Fails by Scott Currie NS7C. Currie discussed how much "infrastructure" has crept into Amateur Radio systems that are intended to be used for emergency communications. Currie is one of the few that explains from authority that just because you decide to put a Winlink node from your home (or other locations), if that node is dependent solely on commercial power and typical Internet access (cable modem, DSL, etc.), and does not have access to backup power and "hardened" Internet access, then it's unlikely to remain online and accessible during a widespread emergency (when Winlink will be needed most). Currie also pointed out that the extensive networking of repeaters (especially Digital Mobile Radio - DMR) repeaters is also a vulnerability. Even if the repeater is connected to Internet via a "hardened" Internet connection such as HamWAN (common here in the Pacific Northwest), the DMR controllers (C-Bridges) are installed in commercial data centers. The likelyhood of those Internet connections remaining intact are not high given the hazards here in the Pacific Northwest - tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and even cyber attacks (not to mention the remote possibility of the many military installations in the Pacific Northwest being targeted for attack.) But I digress. Currie also dived a bit deeper and pointed out that repeaters are potentially vulnerable infrastructure - they need reliable power, occasional maintenance (winters on mountaintops can be severe for tower-mounted antennas). Thus repeaters (not just the remote linking) also can fail when you need them the most.
Currie then encouraged us to get familiar with the peer-to-peer networking capabilities of Winlink - not just connecting directly between Winlink nodes, but also how to make use of the store-and-forward capabilities of Winlink. That was excellent food for thought. Setting up Winlink (as a client) is on my shack to-do list for the summer.
(Brief aside about Winlink's role in Amateur Radio and Emergency Communications. Winlink for better, or worse (by far the better, but it has some issues) has become the standard system for emergency data communications. By far it has the biggest user base, the most robust infrastructure, and the best mindshare of all the myriad methods of data communications in Amateur Radio. If you're going to participate in Amateur Radio Emergency Communications, you have to be familiar and comfortable with and able to communicate using with Winlink.)
Overall, Currie's presentation was excellent. As he admits, he's been presenting on these topics for a long time, and it shows - he's a subject matter expert on these topics. My only wish is that Currie had his own Internet presence for reference to his presentations and other materials for easier reference than parsing through his many presentations that are available online.
The second presentation I watched realtime was Emergency Wireless Internet following the Holiday Farm Fire by Randy Neals W3RWN. This presentation is remarkable and compelling precisely because it doesn't involve Amateur Radio (well, only very peripherally). In the wake of a major fire in Oregon during Fall 2020, several small central Oregon communities were left with essentially no Internet and no telephone service because their sole telecommunications connection was fiber cables on poles up a long, winding road through a forest which had experienced extensive wildfires, and the fiber cables, nor the poles, and some infrastructure (like a remote central office) did not survive. Although "cells on wheels" were quickly dispatched, they were only on site for a short time, and the communities were left with essentially no communications. Neals was part of a small band of Internet professionals that became aware of this situation and thought "maybe we can do something". They pulled off a feat of telecommunications engineering that the telecom infrastructure providers were unable... mostly unwilling... to do and knitted together microwave links and other methods to allow these communities some Internet connectivity. It's inspiring to hear about what they did.
It's sobering to know that despite these communities experiencing a "telecommunications emergency", there's nothing within conventional Amateur Radio could have done to help this situation. Voice communications via HF or VHF/UHF repeaters wouldn't have helped. Winlink wouldn't have helped. Even setting up "Amateur Radio microwave" networks like HamWAN or AREDN wouldn't have helped because of the prohibitions on commercial use and encryption on those systems. What worked was just using license-exempt wireless links and a lot of knowledge about current telecommunications systems. These are a completely different type emergency communicators. This is a "we really better pay attention to this story" moment for Amateur Radio and their perceived role in emergency communications.
It's also instructive that "Oregon Internet Response" was essentially a made-up name for this ad-hoc group. Even now they still haven't formally organized, apparently because what they did is, at the moment, a one-off that could only come together that time with those individuals. To make any progress, they had to call themselves something to get in touch with various entities. Though this is entirely my imagination, I could guess that there's a marked difference in effectiveness between:
"I'm Randy Neals and I'm a Ham Radio operator trying to help restore communications to..." <click> goes the other end.
and
"I'm Randy Neals with Oregon Internet Response and we're trying to restore communications to several communities in Oregon." "Yes, Mr. Neals, how can we help?".
In explaining the story of "Oregon Internet Response" I'm not positing that OIR did something unprecedented - it's not. There have been other groups over the years that have provided "Emergency Internet" including a group of Wireless Internet Service Providers that helped restore Internet access after Hurricane Katrina.
Neals' presentation was also excellent. What I took away from Neal's presentation is to provide useful emergency communications in 2021 and beyond, that Amateur Radio needs to radically broaden its scope of what types of communications it's prepared to help with.
A small postscript to Neal's presentation. Two members of Neals' team that previously were not Amateur Radio operators, now are. They found Amateur Radio useful enough (again, Amateur Radio was used by Neals' team, but only peripherally) to become an Amateur Radio operator.
Bookending these two great presentations was another presentation that I won't link to. This presenter was tiredly reading a laundry list of "Amateur Radio served agencies" and specifically mentioned the American Red Cross as a "served agency". Apparently he was unaware that that in October, 2020 Alex R. Dieffenbach, CEO of the American Red Cross Northwest Region, had served notice that Amateur Radio operators directly serving the American Red Cross chapters in their Northwest Region "...that HAM radio will no longer be part of our communication strategy." (That's a direct quote.) This presenter then went on to read a laundry list of various modes that are in use in Amateur Radio that could be of use for emergency communications. Included in that list were AM (Amplitude Modulation) and CW (Continuous Wave... aka Morse Code). As far as I'm concerned, that total lack of real world perspective invalidated that guy's entire presentation. If he thinks that CW has any conceivable usefulness in a real emergency...
The contrast between "unliked presenter" and the Currie and Neals presentations couldn't be more stark. The "unlinked presenter" is, from my experience, more the norm for "Amateur Radio Emergency Communications". Show up with a radio and a license and expect to be given a commensurate task. But what happens in the real world is likely to be something like:
Emergency Coordinator: "You're a ham. Could you send this spreadsheet to FEMA HQ in DC?"
Ham: "Um, I can't right now, the bands aren't right / the Winlink gateway is down / the file is too big."
Emergency Coordinator: "Sigh. OK. Well, since you're here anyway, maybe you could make some coffee?"
We gotta fix that.
Thanks for reading!
Steve Stroh N8GNJ
Bellingham, Washington, USA
2021-04-12
Posted by Steve Stroh on April 12, 2021 at 10:31 AM in Emergency Communications, Gatherings of Note, General Commentary, Growing Amateur Radio, Presentations / Talks | Permalink